Below studies how Russia can turn the current situation between East and West into its own advantage.
The developments since then, especially the Russia-Turkey alignment, show that what I demonstrate below is workable.
25 August 2014
The Russia Opportunity
The Russia Opportunity
By: Karsten Riise
РОССИЯ
THE RUSSIA - OPPORTUNITY
THE RUSSIA - OPPORTUNITY
Since
beginning of 2014, Russians have been fighting valiantly for their
independence.
That
situation has now created a multi-billion dollar cooperation opportunity
for BRICS and developing countries.
ACT
FAST and with DECISION AGAINST PRESSURE - if you want to turn this surprising
situation into a long-term win-win for developing countries with
Russia.
PROFESSIONAL
perspective
For
years I was deeply involved in management issues within multinational food
distribution at the Plumrose food division of The East Asiatic Company. We
operated 13 companies in Venezuela, Ecuador, Costa Rica, USA, Canada, Britain,
Germany, Denmark, Australia and New Zealand. Later, as finance chief director
with Mercedes-Benz Denmark-Sweden and as management consultant with
amongst others international health care, energy and service technology, I have
engineered successful business changes. I studied Spanish culture (university
degree), fluent in German, and have basic knowledge of Portuguese, French, and
Russian. For years, I have analyzed world politics, global economies, social
issues etc.
Nobody
can better than me present to you the exciting perspectives of the new position
of Russia in global affairs.
a Russia’s ban on
western food has promising perspectives for the non-western world
a Fast action
is needed to achieve maximum benefit
SITUATION
Oops 7
the West do it again
USA-EU
have aligned with dark forces to “engineer” a physical threat to Russian
people. For 100 years, USA has changed other people’s governments, as often as
USAs presidents (regardless of color or sex) changed underwear.
What
USA-EU is now doing around Russia is exactly the same kind of murky
“engineering” as USA has tried in Cuba, Nicaragua, Venezuela, Chile, Argentina,
Brazil. All of Africa, Viêt Nam, and Cambodia have experienced, what it means
to be the guinea-pig of USAs strange experiments. USA still goes on: Venezuela
experienced coup-attempt in 2002, Honduras experienced a full coup d’état under
Obama as late as 2009, and Ecuador a coup-attempt in 2010 – these
coup-pretenders all ask USAs local embassy for permission, before trying their
power-grab.
FIGHT
– Resist – Free
your countries
No
pasarán
Every
time USA and “friends” start to “engineer” a country, they faint their
“democratic” ideals, but they do not hesitate to trample on millions to serve
their one-sided interests. USA’s foreign policies are always the same
against weaker regions. Today, one married couple in USA serves both the
existing president and the “competitor” party with the same “neo-conservative”
policies. Different presidents in USA have different color of sales-speech, but
their foreign policy is the same.
On 6 August 2014, Russia defended its independence
by introducing a total ban on import of agricultural products
from EU, Norway, USA, Canada, and Australia. More western countries ex. Japan,
New Zealand, Iceland, Albania, Montenegro, Moldova, Switzerland, and
Liechtenstein may be banned too, if they commence trade-war.
Russia’s response
is proportionate and fair
because USA-EU for a long time have been harassing Russia with
attacks on the rights of free enterprise, including illegal prohibitions in
London City on Russian financing, numerous arrogant EU-USA violations of WTO
trade-rules including immediate USA stop for Russian products – topped by illegal
western (and Swiss) bank-actions against private property of respectable
Russian individuals. American banks taking orders from USAs government even
harass ordinary people with Mastercard and Visa-card in Russia. That happens to
countries and individuals, who are not in “accordance” with policies from USA.
In normal countries, private property is respected.
Civilized states do not harass people they dislike by just stealing their
means of survival – but USA-EU are uncivilized – they trample on the
property of others - and kill to protect or increase what they believe are their
own “possessions” (which, like oil and minerals of the earth, actually
often belong to somebody else).
Change situation – create your good fortune
As often in history, a challenging situation can create new
opportunities with many exciting and unforeseen perspectives. These new
opportunities open up for all non-western countries, but they
require to quickly establish a much higher level of cooperation between
Russia and developing countries, to bring into reality their promising
potentials.
The extra business-potential with Russia, which has now suddenly
been opened for reliable non-western exporter-countries, is USD 9-16 billion.
Compare that amount to the size of “development” aid. A handsome jack-pot for
the food-producers in developing countries – and it can become a training
ground for companies in developing countries to better do business – and export.
GREAT PERSPECTIVES
More than for money
All
countries that decide to participate with one or more of their businesses in
the project with Russia and BRICS, that I propose in this paper, will join a growing
global network
for politics – development – and business
Partners
with small food-volumes should also join - for strategic reasons.
For
instance, Saudi Arabia grows a small production of food-products – very high
quality dates, and delicious kidney beans that are wonderful in salads. Saudi
Arabia also plays in world politics, and should be invited to join this
cooperation. The same goes for Panamá and Egypt (both with a canal), and
Singapore and some Caribbean countries have interesting financial traditions.
Loyal friendships must also be remembered (Cuba, Venezuela etc.).
Remember,
that business connections can open doors for many types of discussions.
All
partners win – the only losers will be the outsiders.
Gold chances for Russia
- Import new and exotic
types of food from the whole world
- Benefit from the lower
cost base of non-western countries.
- Also develop its own food
production.
- Introduce a happy,
creative citizen-culture of “world-cooking”.
- Develop opportunities for
reverse-export deals
- In sum, reduce Russian
need for western currencies.
- Develop partnership with
BRICS and the world’s most future-promising regions.
- Russia can become a
know-how and logistics partner for the “Global South”.
OBJECTIVE – The Government of Russia can now communicate to
citizens, that all inconvenience in the food-supply will be short – that the
situation will soon be changed into an improvement. Russians must know,
that the situation will not become like pre-1989 – that Government has started
a big company for better, cheaper or more exciting food from South and East.
Diamond chances for Developing
Countries
- Increase the export
cash-earnings
- Improve living-standards
and employment for people
- Develop food industry
- Grow of new businesses
- Develop bonds to the
BRICS-partnership
- Export to Russia can be
turned to increase general export-qualifications – to grow MORE
markets
OBJECTIVE – The increase in export to Russia must not only
create development short-term – it must become a long-term change, where
manufacturers from the Global South-East become an international success – that
is, that they kick out a big volume of European and USA food products forever.
EXCITING
CHALLENGE
Need for Integrated, in-between Russia-friendly global
food-distributor
Big,
centralized food chains in Russia have only small obstacles to re-establish the
supply of their biggest food products from the big food manufacturers of the
biggest developing countries. BUT - even the biggest, centralized Russian
food-chains will still face problems to re-establish their assortment of
small/medium volume (niche and specialty) food products.
Everybody
except the biggest, centralized food-chains will face big problems to supply Russia
with all the basic as well as more exciting food-products, that Russia’s
consumers want and deserve.
I will illustrate the overall challenge facing Russia’s
food-supply with figure 1 below:
Figure
1: Challenge of global food supply
Source
and copyright: Karsten Riise, Change Management & Change News
|
To solve the Challenge above, there is an urgent need to
establish a Russia-friendly integrated distributor-company to work between
Russia and the developing food-supply countries. The company must make
connections, negotiate with developing country suppliers, with help from
Russian authorities certify them, sometimes even help some of them, run
logistics and supply to food-retailers all over Russia, the world largest
country. An enormous – but exciting – challenge, which must be met FAST.
What integrated, Russia-friendly food-distributor must do
The Russia-friendly integrated food distributor-company, that is
needed, shall not focus on the part of food-business that directly touches the
consumers (B2C) – it shall focus on business-to-business (B2B). The
Russia-friendly integrated distributor-company is primarily conceived as an in-between
company, which shall develop supplies from either small/medium
suppliers, or small/medium volume product-types, or from small/medium
developing countries – and offers to supply these products to Russian
consumer-oriented food-chains (the B2C part of the whole supply chain ).
Furthermore, the Russia-friendly food-distributor may build up
an expertise to help business companies in developing countries to become more
professional. This is much more helpful to developing people than the pathetic
“development aid” handed out by EU, USA and UN, which only amounts to one a
tenth of the trade barriers (primarily food-trade duties) maintained by the
not-so-free-business protectionists EU and USA against Africa, Asia and Latin-America.
The Russia-friendly distributor-company must offer:
- An broad and
exciting, attractively priced assortment of low-volume products to
all Russian retail-chains – including the big integrated Russian
food-chains
plus - A full
high-quality, competitively priced assortment (including high-volume
products) to all of Russia’s smaller retail-chains – especially including
food-stores in thinly populated parts of the enormous Russian country
site.
The company we speak of here, must be started by Russia –
to serve both customers in Russia and suppliers in the Global South-East.
The company’s objective should from the beginning be, that the
company prepares in 2-3 years time to serve also EU with successful products
from South-South-East developing countries - when the political climate between
Russia and EU allows this again. This way, the company will be (A) a gateway
for developing countries to permanently increase their exports to Europe
and (B) the company itself will be a profitable business-venture.
To become an international financial operation, but still be
protected against western attempts of sabotage, the distribution-company must
be registered in Hong Kong – possibly as a formally independent
business-foundation.
The whole cooperation must, of course, all the time be
coordinated with Rosselkhoznadzor (the Russian food security authorities) as
well as with the trade ministries and transport-companies from all the involved
developing countries.
Russia can choose after some years, to keep the
distribution-company as a long-term strategic asset – or to sell it at a good
opportunity to other investors with a billion-dollar profit for the Russian
ownership.
- China is a very big economy, and has already agreed with
Russia to create its own logistics hub for agricultural products in Dongning,
on the border to Russia. China therefore, does not need the concept described
in this paper, but should of course be invited to discussions.
Act
fast
Developing country food-suppliers need stable relations to
perform quickly and offer the lowest prices. As long as Russia has not
established a new efficient network of food-supply from Rest-of-World, then
Russia will pay overprice, maybe 10%-20%.
Russia today
needs a lot of food supply – things must happen FAST:
- Many good, local food
producers (even in larger countries) are not ready to export to Russia
- Some countries are too
small or poor to develop their own food-business for export
- Bigger Russian food-retailers
can develop new logistics, but only for products with big
enough volumes
Let’s face the facts: - Small-medium business - even from some big
export-countries - have export problems
- Nearly all good
food-producers from small or poor countries – have export
problems
- Russia is huge - the
sales-effort necessary to get your products out into that segment of
Russian food-chains, which have no central listing system, is too enormous
for all, except for big manufacturers from big countries.
- All small-medium
Russian food retail-chains don’t have big resources to find suppliers
– they have a problem
- Even big Russian food
retail-chains have problems to find non-western suppliers for
their low-volume products
Russia is a much more reliable partner and prospective market
than the west.
During the 15 years, Russia has a long-term growth, that has
doubled its economy per citizen. Even the financial crisis of 2007 was
successfully managed, and turned into new growth by Russia. It is not all
energy – Russia has now a long success in all sectors.
In contrast, for 35 years USA have only created artificial
“growth” by blowing up debt-bubbles (private and public) and issuing
national-bank dollars with no foundation in real production. USA has now
increased public debt with dangerous speed from 60% to over 90% of GDP,
and every month they send billions of new-made dollars out, to artificially
increase stock-prices on Wall Street.
EU are also constantly experimenting with new near-death
attempts on their economy.
Together, USA and EU have a declining share of the world’s
purchase power – USA-EU are fast sinking to one third of world
purchase-power. This pitiful pair tries to “rule the world”.
Japan is a toxic bomb of old age, long-term stagnation,
enormous public net debt (140%) and also sends out money with no production
value - the so-called “Quantitative Easing” now imitated by USA-EU.
USA , EU and Japan are dangerous economies.
|
USA-EU are NOT safe for business
USA
stole the money of a cigar shop, run in his spare-time by a police-man from
Denmark. The police-man from Denmark transferred around 5,000 dollars through
Germany to pay for a shipment of good cigars from Cuba. His money never touched
USA homeland, but USAs control of global banking is so total, that USA could
“see” and steal a Danish police-man’s money even in Germany, before his payment
arrived to Cuba. USA attacks all kinds of business and people - because USA
wants to punish a new country every day.
As
“corrupt” or “terrorist” are cried out only those world leaders, countries,
people, and business managers, that want not to “comply” with USA. USA talk
of “global terrorism”, but USA have also trained and armed death squads that
kill and terrorize innocent people.
The
word “oligarch” is always used against Russia’s region, never about the rich
clique which engineers USAs politics. Predatory USA can make a “war on drugs”
and at the same time help militias to carry out drug-business to finance them
(read Peter Dale Scott). USA attacks non-western countries for
“confiscational” and “predatory” taxation, but USA are silent about
confiscational taxation in France, Belgium, and Scandinavia – with special
“friendly” inside tax treatment for Social Democratic leaders.
USA
invades, “regime changes”, engineer west-government steered NGOs,
“opposition” and “color revolutions”, and sanction in a lawless fashion
anybody they want. USA controls the words “human rights” only to increase its
global power. USA can defame some countries and even criticizing actors (ex.
in France) as “anti-semitic” while at the same time USA support some
neo-Nazis around Russia.
USA
cries out China for working with Sudan, while at the same time oil-companies
from USA and EU earn fortunes in Sudan.
Countries
that are maybe even better than some of their neighborhood (ex. Cuba,
Venezuela, Iran, Zimbabwe, Russia, China) are cried out as the “worst in the
world”, while at the same time USA themselves mistreat other people with
their “friends” (like Pol Pot, Somoza, the Shah, Noriega, Videla, Marcos,
Saddam, Bin Laden, Mubarak, Gaddafi) – which USA-West-Europe use, and
often later betray.
|
Not
even Swiss banks are safe for business anymore – and Singapore is under
pressure.
Never transfer money through Western countries - when it can be
avoided.
Use Hong Kong 
and Shanghai for banking
and Shanghai for banking
Kaliningrad - St. Petersburg - Crimea - Vladivostok a can become luxurious
free-zones for banking
A non-western inter-bank system (SWIFT) for money
transfer is needed, because USA and EU have monopolized the existing
inter-bank system (all international inter-bank computers are today placed in
Belgium and USA).
Encryption and safe internet communication is also a high
priority issue.
A new system of global currency is badly needed.
|
Coordinate your response against USA-EU PRESSURE
Não vai ser !
USA-EU will try their usual tactics of coercion (trying to buy
your politicians, threaten you etc.) to try to force your country away from
enjoying its just and rightful opportunities.
Cooperate MERCOSUR – AFRICAN
UNION – ASIA – MUSLIM REGIONS
Other countries have for 200 years had enough of taking orders
from USA and West-Europe powers.
Stand together – You have your rights of free enterprise –
Resist, and you will end up stronger !
Rich countries must pay a high political price – incl.
WTO-complaint – if they dare try to blackmail you.
Achieve a permanent improvement in finance and trade
against USA-EU.
Increase power of developing countries.
Good FRIENDS
Friends of Russia are the BRICS partners –
Brazil-India-China-South Africa. Very importantly, good old friends like Cuba,
Venezuela, Vietnam – and Korea, must be considered. Naturally, near-abroad
partners White Russia, Kazakhstan, in Central Asia and in Kaukasus. Finally,
new opportunities are open to develop strategic connections in Latin-America
(ex. Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, Perú), Africa (ex. Moçambique, Angola, Uganda,
Congo, Kenya, Tanzania) and Muslim countries (ex. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, North
Africa). Join with other friends in non-west finance hubs – and win.
Take the step
An organization must be created – revolutionize things – to
drive the process forward.
What is to be done
Maybe as a foundation - the new Russia-friendly global
food-organization must:
(A)
Cooperate with Russian authorities –
plus food-sector and logistics - to plan for Russia’s needs.
In words of a famous revolutionary: - Decide “What is to be done”
In words of a famous revolutionary: - Decide “What is to be done”
(B)
Make a Master Plan
(C)
Establish Financing – and lines of
executive responsibilities
(D)
Create the necessary
business-entities (companies) to run the business.
(E)
Establish political contacts –
create the cooperation framework
(F)
Identify suppliers – contact them –
judge their qualifications
(G)
Built own organization – find
cooperation partners (incl. IT and logistics) - design process
implementation
(H)
Negotiate deliveries
… and START !
|
||
Давай Россия !
Go India !
Turkey !
|
Viva Brasil !
¡ Venga Latinos !
China !
|
Vive L’Afrique !
South Africa
Viêt Nam !
|
Karsten Riise
Partner & Editor
CHANGE NEWS &
CHANGE MANAGEMENT
