Preventive action

This study explores Russia's strategic military position. 

Russia can anytime implement a fast military procedure like the one I have arrived at below. This has so far prevented USA and NATO from sending heavy military reinforcement eastwards. My plan below still holds.

21 September 2014

Russia’s

Necessary

Action

By: Karsten Riise

In spite of Russian cooperation to create an armistice in war-torn Ukraine, Western Powers continue with ever more ”sanctions” against Russia, with efforts to integrate Ukraine with NATO – there will even be those in Washington, who now want to give Ukraine nuclear weapons. Ukraine’s worthless law of “autonomy” for the East is void of significant content, it can be cancelled again any time, and it is time-limited. A trick.

Western hypocrisy bashes Russia for “human rights issues” while at the same time the West silences the horrible violations perpetrated by Kiev’s half-private Nazi-volunteers, who are guilty of a catastrophe of  300,000 thousand Russian-speaking refugees.

Murder on Malaysian Flight MH17 pilots by machinegun-fire from fighter-jets penetrating cockpit-floor from above  with “high-energy-objects” (see Preliminary Crash report Figure 10, page 25) – truly reveals the West’s fanatic cynicism.

Any-one with eyes that can see will recognize that the current situation is just a pause for NATO to build up Ukraine as an aggressive “front-state” against Russia.

Russia has no other option than to enforce a friendly regime-change in Ukraine.

The following analysis demonstrates how Russia can do this efficiently.

GRAND STRATEGY

CONCEPT

Russia can win this conflict – comparatively easily.

But it requires that Russia implements a Grand Strategy concept, to let military, business, finance, culture, diplomacy, global communication – and moral rightness all work together.

USA and EU believe naïvely, that their material power is the key. That leads them to defeat. The strongest power is the moral level – as people in developing and Muslim countries know. 

As an example of how mentally backward USA, EU and NATO are, I refer to a study from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) made on this conflict in April, 2014.

In the RUSI study from April, 2014, on page 3 fig. 1 a reader will notice an embarrassing lack of understanding of the underlying driving dynamics from both sides of the conflict, a lack of creativity and small talent. One of NATO’s supposedly most famous military institutes is brain-dead. No surprise, that NATO bungles and fumbles everything since 1980.

SITUATION

The operational preconditions for Russia’s Necessary Action are:

(1) Russia has no choice – to let Ukraine continue as it does, will in 3 years result in a fatal destabilization of Russian itself due to NATO efforts, abusing Ukraine as platform.
 

(2) Russia has prepared everything to turn the West’s ”sanctions” into Russian advantage.

In the 21^st century, the USA-EU only command about one third of the World’s purchase power – they can never “contain” Russia and the two thirds of World.

(3) Russia has superior military forces for an instant intervention in Ukraine.

OBJECTIVES

Global Objective

New World Order

-       Make EU see that USA just create problems – USA is a partner to avoid

-       Break USAs global prestige

-       Raise Russia’s global prestige – for doing the right thing

-       New World Order in 21^st Century –  establish Russia as a main driver in those 2/3 of the World, which are successful - which is the non-USA-EU-Japan World

Objectives in

Theater of Ukraine

-       Regime change in Ukraine

-       Recognition of Crimea’s secession and integration into Russia.

-       Recognition of Novo-Rossiya in East-Ukraine as an autonomous republic which stays inside Ukraine, but has a written right (with no time-limit) to secede any time it wants.

-       Establish a military-economic Union of Ukraine and Russia: One army – one currency.

Russia must take a responsibility for Ukraine, which the West cannot and will not take.

Operational

Military Objectives

1. Establish a strong Russian base-area for military operations west of Dnepropetrovsk

2. Neutralize all opposing military capacities east of the river Dnepr (=Dnieper)

3. Secure humanitarian aid, orderly conditions, and reconstruction in East-Ukraine

4. Put Kiev in an iron-grip of economic-military-energy and moral break-down

5. Create an alliance with friendly Ukrainian forces to overtake power in Kiev

6. Support new Ukrainian government in securing order in all of Ukraine

7. Reverse Ukraine’s road down – make Ukraine a success with Russia.

Operational

Economic and Communication Objectives

Russia must turn risks to economy and foreign-relations into opportunities for a better future

MILITARY

OPERATIONAL PLAN

Description below refers to fig. 1 at end of text.

Russia creates groups for military operations: Group A, B, C1, C2, and D. Each group will correspond to a vector of advance. Reinforcements and reserves will be mobile and ready.

Operational risks for Russia must be kept minimal. The amount of blood-shed should be minimized, except possibly for what Machiavelli may have called the necessary cruelties.

Operations Group A: 

Point of departure: West of Rostov-na-Donu – around Taganrog

Objective: Penetrate forward to create a bridge-head on the west-bank of Dnepr at Zaporizhia. In target area establish an operational zone for heavy advance in all directions.

Mission can encounter opposition from heavy regular army-units and air-attacks.

This mission is the most demanding of the military operations – all military  branches of land-air-sea (bombardment, landings etc.) must be coordinated and no delays should be accepted.

Air superiority and suppression of air-defenses must be established immediately.

Support from parachute units and Spetsnaz commando-units are advisable.

Bridges across river Dnepr must be secured – field-construction of additional bridges prepared – the first bridge-heads on the west-bank of Dnepr must be secured.

Stretch to move forward: 300-400 km

Target-area west of Dnepropetrovsk must be secured in 7 days.

Speed is of esssence. To keep up speed, Operational Group A must apply Blitz-krieg principles; pockets of local resistance are bypassed to be cleaned out by later upcoming units. Larger urban centers (Dnepropetrovsk) are circumvented and simply sealed off by later up-coming troops. From the Russian border to the target of operations west of Zaporizhia, the terrain is open, relatively flat and roads are good – perfect conditions for quick advance of heavy army forces. Securing a large area of operations west of Dnepropetrovsk is facilitated by the bend of the Dnepr-river, which will protect both flanks of Russian forces from counterattacks. Supply-lines across river Dnepr must be kept open against air-raids and sabotage.  To secure the left flank and land access to Crimea, an expedition south is needed.

Operations Group B:

Point of departure: West of Rostov-na-Donu – around Taganrog (same place as Group A).

Objective; Engage and cut-off the Kiev-militias operating south and east of Donetsk

Mission will encounter resistance from light armed but fanatic units with a few heavy support units. Time is important, but not as critical. This is the relatively more simple of all the missions, but should not be underestimated, because surprise always comes up in conflict.

Stretch to move forward: 60-90 km

After engaging Kiev’s half-private militias, an iron-ring will cut-off the opponents at Donetsk from the south and west – as well as protect the right-flank of advance of Group A.

Operations Group C (subgroups C1 and C2):

Point of departure: Valuyki – east of Belgorod, south of Liski.

Objectives: C1+C2: Drive a wedge in between Kharkov-Slovyansk C1: Complete the encirclement of Kiev-militias in Novo-Rossiya from north and north-west. C2: Cut-off and neutralize regular army units north of Novo-Rossiya; probably stationed in the army-districts of Kharkov and Poltava.

Mission can experience flank-attacks incl. heavy weapons and air-raids from regular units based near the cities of Kharkov and/or Poltava.

Stretch to move forward: 200-400 km

The Kiev-regime should quickly be overturned by friends in Ukraine’s armed forces (a Russian secret services job) so that Operations Group D (stationed west of Belgorod) would not have to be activated. Russia’s first military objective must be to establish an absolutely dominating military position inside Ukraine - but not to occupy everywhere (unless need be).

Dnepopretrovsk and Kharkov should be sealed off (their air-ports taken, of course) but should hopefully not need to be taken. Let a new Russia-friendly Ukraine take care of its own cities.

International access to the operational areas is not needed. Selected journalists can later be invited, they should first be screened and accredited, and then escorted as ”embedded” inside a few designated Russian army-units with journalistic contact-persons inside the Russian army: That is the internationally accepted procedure which USA invented and implemented in Iraq. Russia should not obey to more “free” press-standards than the West.

Air-support:

Russia must at beginning of operations send out a NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) instructing all civilian air-traffic to stay out of all Ukraine’s air-space up to unlimited height, and enforce a total no-fly zone all over Ukraine. After regime-change in Kiev, Russia will want to incorporate Ukraine’s surviving military aircrafts into a Russian-Ukrainian military-economic Union. If responsible people in Kiev understand, that Ukraine must keep its military aircrafts grounded, they can be spared – Russia must eliminate all threats.

Do NOT make a smaller operational plan:

What I have described here is the absolute minimum.

It may look easier to make a smaller operations-plan, to just free Novo-Rossiya, forgetting all the rest. Don’t think that would give Russia peace. It would be dangerous for Russia.

A more simplistic plan would fail the objectives stated above – risking Russia

A smaller operational plan would give Ukraine time to fortify everything, and make defenses in the depth. USA-EU still believe they only need to worry about losing a small area of eastern Ukraine – that is their basic worst-case scenario. If Kiev is not touched, USA-EU will build Ukraine up to a deadly enemy of Russia which sooner or later will start actions inside Russia.

Russia’s Necessary Action must give the West a chock – a defeat far worse than anything USA-EU feared in their worst-case-scenario – to resonate in the World.

Turn whole Ukraine into a full Union with Russia.

Do not accept a western part of Ukraine. Only a large operation can create the regime-change that Russia need have in Kiev. That will upset the fundamental balance of power in Europe into Russia’s favor - and kick USA (which is already stumbling) further down the hill globally.

Russia has hitherto proceeded with deliberate moves according to the word: festina lente (hurry slowly). Though Russia has spent the time very well making efficient preparations, maybe Russia has also been waiting for “Godot” (the man who never came) in hopes that the USA-EU would one day finally make a fair deal with Russia. USA-EU will never do that.

It is time Russia and the World take realistic consequences. USA-EUs “partnering” with Russia was always a cheat - to play on hopes. USA-EU want global supremacy. Russia needs to implement a full operations plan described in this paper with a forceful occupation of the area of the Dnepr-bent west of Dnepropetrovsk.

TIME

and PLAN

An optimal moment for this humanitarian and political aid-action in Ukraine will be on a Friday eve, at around 2200 Hrs. On Friday evenings most people go home and are mentally off-duty. Saturday and Sunday, banks and financial markets are closed. During the weekend the World will have time to accept the new realities that Russia can create. During the weekend Russia can announce and implement a pre-planned package of stricter finance-procedures to protect its economy. Protective new finance-procedures can then take effect immediately, first-thing Monday morning.

FINANCIAL-ECONOMIC

OPERATIONAL PLAN

When financial markets open the next Monday, Russia can have introduced a general ban (for 3 months) against taking cash and gold out of the country without special permit. This way, Russia can protect against a sudden drain on currency reserves.

To support military operations in Ukraine, Russia can also stop all money transfers from Ukrainian guest-workers to Ukraine – a blow that would take out 4% of Ukraine’s economy.

Companies in Russia will under the new set of rules from the Monday morning need approval from Russian authorities for foreign money transfers above a minimum size. It must be a system which Russia has prepared silently in advance. Russia is a business friendly country, so the great challenge for Russia will be to make a currency control-system (1) run smoothly without undue irritation of big and small businesses all over Russia, and (2) avoid that the currency control-system is destroyed by corruption. Likely, the system may exist only 3 months, until a new normal is established. After the regime-change in Kiev, Ukrainian families will again receive their payments from honorable relatives working with Russia.

Russia can also introduce a system of differentiated exchange rates (normal and priority). China has had enormous long-term economic success with similar currency-rules.

Vital Russian private and public international business assets and finance-arrangements must have been transferred from Europe to Far-East banks as preparation to this operation. Goodbye to the vanity-fair of financial markets in City of London and Frankfurt.

Vital import-items must have been identified on a confidential list and future alternative suppliers pointed out – preferably from friendly countries with a high-tech industries like China, Brazil, even India and South Africa. Supplies of raw-materials can be pre-planned.

Some components of military importance may take a little while to substitute. But with cooperation China, Russia, India, Brazil and others, all supplies of military parts will get back running again within 6-18 months. All items can be copied !! After such a transition, Russia’s strategic military production-base will happily be broader and more secure than ever before.

Most USA-owned companies in Russia can quickly go out of business or be taken over by Russian interests. USAs burger-chains are now being stamped as ”unhealthy” by Russian authorities. USA do the same kind of tricks, so that is morally acceptable. Russia is a serious business partner to serious countries – therefore European companies should be spared (unless of course, EU does something really foolish).

These months, Russia is introducing China’s successful pay-card system to replace Visa, Mastercard, American Express, which were known to have harassed Russian customers. Goodbye to the preeminence of American banks.

Russia must introduce its own server-hub for all interbank money-transfers (SWIFT). As it is today, USA-EU control the SWIFT computers in Belgium and USA, and they have free hand to spy, block and manipulate all Russian international money-transfers. The BRICS countries plus all the World’s ambitious developing countries quickly need to agree on a separate SWIFT money-transfer IT-system – with a quantum encryption not breakable by USA.

As a consequence of this conflict, Russia faces fantastic economic opportunities together with the World’s developing countries. Read my separate analysis “Russian Opportunity”.

REGIME COLLAPSE

KIEV

According to IMF, Ukraine had 2013 a GDP/inhabitant of only USD 3,862 – just like Mongolia. Iraq had the double level of Ukraine. Albania was also higher. Previously, Ukraine could stay at level with countries like Egypt, Congo (Br.), Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Morocco. But the  West’s puppet regime in Kiev is taking Ukraine on a catastrophic way down to a level like Bolivia at USD 2,701 per inhabitant. A regime-change is needed, so Russia can change that. 

Ukrainian guest-workers in Russia send home money that make-up about 4% of Ukraine’s GDP – just much as is sent home by Ukrainian workers in the EU. Ukraine also depends on Russia for some of its biggest export-industries (including weapon-components for Russia) from companies which are located in East-Ukraine. But Kiev’s current elite is from the West.

Creating total defeat for Kiev’s punitive militias in East-Ukraine, with Russian forces entering west of Dnepropetrovsk, with gas-resources going down to only 1 month of consumption before Winter, and with a financial disaster for Ukraine, the operation described in this paper will quickly lead to moral, military, economic, and energy break-down for the regime in Kiev.

After this operation, Russia will have all the trumps to change the regime in Kiev, and to create a much better future for Ukraine within a close military-economic Union with Russia.

West-governments, banks, and IMF will lose billions of dollars they lent out to support a defunct violent puppet in Kiev, when a new friendly constitution dissolves Ukraine into a new legal state-entity - a Union with Russia. Such losses along with masochistic “sanctions” from EU that hurt EU itself – all that can predictably result in a new Western financial crisis.

COMMUNICATION

OPERATIONS PLAN

Russia has room for improving its foreign communications. Communications must especially address the World opinion at large, diplomatic relations, and global business – to help them understand morally and intellectually that Russia is acting with fairness and from necessity.

Moral & Legitimate

Ukraine is a failed state. Regime change is necessary – Ukraine is already about to become a nest for Nazi-terror, refugee-waves, and serious destabilizations, which also threaten EU.

Regime-change does not need a declaration of war - and the UN is as usual totally irrelevant. These real-world principles of international law have been firmly established by USA on many occasions, including Panamá, Grenada and Iraq. UN restrictions are to be ignored – ref. Libya.

When it comes to lying about own secret wars, USA is a master-teacher: USA even invented the word for it: “Deniability”. USA conducted secret bombing of civilians and denied its army-operations in Cambodia for a long time, before USAs public could not be cheated any longer. In the first of USAs many wars in Afghanistan, USA armed their friend Osama Bin-Laden with Russian arms so that USA could deny, that USA had supplied the weapons (later USA betrayed Osama Bin-Laden, turning Osama Bin-Laden into what he later became).

When it comes to cutting out pieces of other peoples’ countries for own purposes, USA are supreme: Kosovo, Panamá, Texas, Florida, California, Hawaii, Philippines. Inserting puppet-regimes into neighboring countries is also a USA-expertise (Honduras, 2009).

Ukraine is billiard-game for USA-EU:  Billiard pushes one ball to hit the next. USA-EU have created a client-regime in Kiev, to take on Russia. After making Russia their client, they will operate Russia to encircle China and take on China from all sides. It really is that simple.

Justice

Novo-Rossiya’s own institutions will probably without much external interference implement the consequences of the crimes committed by Kiev’s half-private fighting-units, staffed by Nazi-elements whose leader (a close friend of top US-politicians) paid a visit of Nazi-“solidarity” to the lawyer of convicted WWII KZ-guard criminal John Demyanyuk. Half-private Kiev-units, whose ethnic violence with Western support have destroyed apartment buildings and villages - making 300,000 East-Ukrainians refugees, cleansing much over 100,000 Russian-friendly refugees out of Ukraine. That is supported and silenced by the Western media and politicians, who are always loud against Russia.

RESULT

After change to a friendly government in Kiev, Ukraine and Russia must form a Union for Defense and Economic Cooperation. Ukraine’s own interior-forces will assert the new Union’s sovereignty in all Ukrainian cities and provinces. In the new Union, large parts of Ukraine’s standing army will be dispatched to assist in the Union’s support of Central Asia, and to counter NATO’s build-up in the Baltic countries. In exchange for Ukrainian support in Central Asia and Siberian regions, some Russian forces will permanently be based in Ukraine to bolster the new Union’s south-western defenses. Also is in the interest of China and BRICS.

Ukrainian independence in 1990 was in many ways a mistake. Ukraine is in a dangerous state of disarray, worsened by cynical western manipulation of Ukraine’s internal affairs. Only Russia has the strength and motivation to put Ukraine on a good track. The new situation from a Russian operation in Ukraine will result in a win-win for Russia and Ukraine.

As demonstrated above, USA-EUs self-satisfaction can collapse easily. USAs so-called ”military guarantees” for Europe inside the NATO-cooperation are worth nothing. USA will never shed blood for Europe anymore. USAs cooperation with dark forces in Ukraine is about to create a catastrophe in Europe. The NATO-organization is just a high-profile career-ladder, which has created no usable political outcome since 1990 – just look at Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, Pakistan, Somalia - and so on. NATO is expensive - puts out fire with gasoline.

As I wrote to the EU Parliament 18 October 2012: Without a Military Union inside the European Union, the EUs eastern flank is in reality unprotected, because NATO is not a believable organization. The Baltics are undefendable, Slovakia and Cyprus (for Turkey) are all raisins in a cake –to be picked out any time.

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Karsten Riise

Partner & Editor

CHANGE NEWS
CHANGE MANAGEMENT